Feriado no Brasil?

Last Wednesday, Hudson Barton started a chat with me to try to find why the number of Users Online had gone down, see the graph below (screenshot from http://nyanyan.to/).Indeed, the usual “past” behaviour was a steady rise from Monday to Wednesday included (see the blue curve), a slow decrease on Thursday and Friday (weekend begins in some Muslim countries), and very significant decreases on Saturday and Sunday (weekend in most countries).

We made several guesses, but didn’t find a common explanation.

I still think it was Brazil. Indeed it was an official Holiday: “Proclamação da República”.

The number of users online at peak time went down by almost 5%! This is a huge number of course! Could it have been the Brazilians? Probably! According to Ruell Consulting, in November 2005, Brazil was number one Skype User with 8% users, and even previous information from Skype showed 6th position (5.85% users – April 2005) and 4th position (7.24% users – October 2004).
Why I do believe it could be Brazil:
  • Most Brazilians have probably broadband at work and use Skype there, so business users are (all of them) disconnected!
  • Peak time “users online” is about 16h GMT, or 14h Brazilian coastline time!
  • At that moment they are on the beaches drinking cachaça and eating shrimps :-) , not in front of a stupid computer screen
I could be wrong, but if I am right, this means Brazilian Skype users represent more than 5% of the online population at Peak Time!

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