2006-08-16

Skype growth slower????

I had a chat with Hudson Barton, another American crazy Skype User like myself this afternoon. It went about numbers!

That is a “cleaned” excerpt from our chat.


Hudson: I hope you saw this article of RBC Capital Markets analyst Jordan Rohan: Skype Growth May Be Slowing . Can you refute it?

Me: concerning the number of downloads, he seems to be right! Approximate numbers:
Q1 52 Million downloads
Q2 59 M
Q3 42 M (extrapolated!)
but ... 59 M was IMHO boosted by the USA campaign and ...
there is now probably a slowdown of downloads because of “summer period – holidays”, and this temporary loss could well be compensated by the increase of download speed in September! We are only at the middle of the Quarter!

Hudson: we discussed this a few days ago, and you said, that the slowdown was about the same as last year, or actually less severe.

Me: I spoke about the slowdown of "users online", and this is about the same as last year indeed! It is much more difficult, with the data i have to take the same conclusions concerning the number of downloads.

Hudson: Yes, and the downloads data is even more irrelevant to the "growth of skype" than the users online.

Me: Well, in fact, Rohan is more optimistic than i am: he thinks there will be 51 M downloads in Q3, my extrapolation is even worse: 42 M. But i made my guess in a non-mathematical way! I think his guess of the 51 million is closer to what it will be than my guess !

Hudson: what i'm trying to say is that his conclusion that skype is slowing down is flawed.

Me: yes, IMHO, you are completely right! It is flawed!

Hudson: are you familiar with the expression "drive-by media"? It refers to the practice of analysts and reporters writing stuff just to grab a headline or to hurt an enemy without having to suffer the consequences of their irresponsibility.

Me: No, i didn't know the expression, but i am familiar with the practice!
"Rohan also writes that Skype will likely add 18 million new users during eBay's fiscal third quarter -- the same number of new users Skype reported in the second quarter."
Or he is following up what i wrote in Skype Journal about usernames, or he is following up the data himself. My number, based on the short period that Skype provided data concerning the growth of usernames, is that for each 2.8 new downloads there is one new User account ! His 18 million, that is exactly 51 Million downloads/2.8 !!!!!
If you agree, i post some of the above comments in my blog.

Hudson: Feel free to post anything I say, unless of course what I say is stupid :)

Me: :D I think we both often say stupid things ;) We do not belong to Skype ... so we are only guessing!

1 comment:

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