Skype will beat Kazaa soon!

To obtain a degree in Industrial Engineering at the University of Brussels, Jonathan Verhaeghe wrote a dissertation about the VoIP and Skype market in the World and in Belgium (June 2006)*. I could “preview” it and made some suggestions for improvement. He wrote that Kazaa was the most downloaded internet software of the World. I pointed out that Skype is about to break that record before the end of the year, and somewhere before both reach 400 million downloads (my guess: 398 million!).

Kazaa launched its Software in March 2001. They broke the world record somewhere end of May of 2003, with 230 million downloads, beating ICQ! It took them therefore about 26 months to reach that number and a new world record.

It took Skype about 28 months to reach 230 million downloads, see the graph.

Within three months counting from now Skype will have been downloaded more times than Kazaa. Indeed, Kazaa has now about 390 million downloads, and the download speed is about 800.000 times per week. For Skype it is about 3.5 million downloads per week!

So what? Is this an indicator of the popularity of Skype? Certainly it is!

But, some comments can be made however to temper the enthusiasm:

• Not every download means a new user of course (some new users try it and abandon, some upgrade the software) but this is true for Kazaa too.
• Skype releases quite often new versions of its software, boosting each time the number of downloads.
• A lot of users download Skype on several computers (desktop, laptop, computer at working place). Most Kazaa users don’t do this!

Anyway, these are quite spectacular numbers.

Thanks to Jonathan, who “indirectly” gave me the idea for this blog.
And congratulations: he obtained his degree!

*Jonathan VERHAEGHE
Voice over IP, Analyse du marché et du potentiel en Belgique, étude du cas Skype
Année académique 2005-2006
Université Libre de Bruxelles – Solvay Business School