2008-08-04

2nd quarter results

Better late than never, here my graphs concerning the published results of the last Skype quarter. If you want to have some explanation why I recalculate it also in € (euro), see my comments on the previous quarter here.
Revenue continues to rise steadily. Good, no further comments needed.
User accounts also continue to rise steadily. Also good, but see also my previous comments on this misleading marketing trick: user accounts is not equal to active users! Jan in Malaysia also commented on this very recently here.

What seems to be in a downward trend is the revenue per user account:
I am sure the trend would be rising steadily if we could plot the revenue per active user! But it seems Skype is scared to publish that number. Hudson Barton estimates the number of active users to be 32 million, instead of 338 million in his blog here … quite a difference!

2008-07-31

No credit card reader … but Skype

I had very pleasant holidays in Brasil (the typo is intentional, in Portuguese Brazil is BraSil). Almost all internet cafés have Skype installed, headphones and webcam. I used it to phone home to Belgium, and to contact friends or family in Brasil. My Belgian cell phone stayed off most of the time. Even for listening to my cell phone mailbox i used Skype, with the numerical keypad to enter my code, and called at almost normal “Belgian” cell phone call prices.

I traveled around by long distance bus, and went from South to North-East. The duration of some rides was sometimes 24 hours. Bus seats are usually more comfortable than economy class seats on international flights!

Bus tickets could be bought with my credit card. Only in the small colonial town of Ouro Preto, i had to run to the bank, retrieve money and pay cash. But ooh surprise …… the guy at the “Rodoviaria” (bus station) checked through Skype with another agency of the bus company (called “Pássaro Verde” – Green Bird) if there were still free seats on the bus! The company has at least 40 Skype accounts! All their usernames end on “pv” and their full name on “*** | PV”. No credit card reader … but Skype!

2008-07-17

Skype everywhere in Brasil

Salvador de Bahía, one of the most beautiful cities in Brazil ...

2008-06-24

Off for Holidays

Tomorrow i leave for Brasil with my 3 sons, for 4 weeks. This is perhaps the last time i travel with the 3 of them in view of their age (22, 20 and 18). And i go to a country i know quite well, because my kids have the double Belgian-Brazilian nationality, and we have been there several times.

I will use Skype in Brasil in Internet cafés or in the house of friends, to contact my family in Belgium. Brasil is one of the bigger Skype Users Countries.
I don't know if i will blog while on holidays, but i come back for sure.

2008-06-19

Skype stops loving MySpace?

I played around with the new 4.0 beta version. It is still very beta of course, but, apart from the ugly or missing things, there are some nice things in it. Especially the first Welcome Screen, where you can test very easily if Skype is working. Very useful for first time users.

But, what caught my attention is that when playing around with the hidden emoticons, there is one missing. The first image (on top) is an extract of the chat window of the 3.8 version. The second image, at the bottom, is the same chat text and result, and the (myspace) code for the hidden emoticon doesn’t work anymore! Is there some hidden message behind this? Is the deal between MySpace and Skype still valid?
And there isn’t neither an (Ebay) hidden emoticon from what i know!

2008-06-18

The new version and numbers

Don’t download the new 4.0 Skype beta version (i will not post the link) unless you are an experienced user, because there are some vital functions missing, see here in the release notes.

What I can’t miss is, and it is temporarily (i hope) missing in this version are (between others):
  • Ability to turn alerts off
  • History
  • Contact groups
The new version installation file is is 24.7 Mbyte big, compared to the 21.3 Mbyte of the previous 3.8 version.

What pisses me off, and this is not related to the new version, is that Josh Silverman, CEO of Skype, says in a video where he promotes the new version: “To our community of over 300 million users all around the world, thank you very much for your passion”.

Stop the bullshit marketing talk Josh! You DON’T have 300 million users, you have perhaps 35 million users, that is a big difference, see also my very recent blog post here. Shame on you!

2008-06-17

Recognition - thank you Jaanus!

In the beginning i collected Skype data out of personal interest to follow up the phenomenal growth of Skype. Later, i provided my data to Skype Journal, because it was fun to contribute to some discussions.

And, about two years ago i began to blog myself, for recognition. Indeed, you blog hoping that some people will read it.

Yesterday, another blogger made a reference to my blog. It happened several times in the past, but when it comes from the former main blogger and Skype Staff Jaanus Kase, this is indeed the kind of recognition i love! This means at least that some (former) Skype Staff acknowledge that my analysis is often correct!

He was telling the Skype and Firefox worlds yesterday that perhaps Skype has the world record of downloads in one single day, see his post here: Firefox 3 download day on June 17 …

My answer to his implicit question … The maximum number of Skype downloads in a 24 hours period was:
  • 1.180.000 on November 4, 2006, or
  • 2.700.000 on November 19, 2007.
This is based on my data samples. As it are samples, the Skype download record could even be higher. Only Skype can tell!

So, will Firefox break that record today? Perhaps they will do it!

One good point for Firefox compared to Skype: they release their 3.0 version as well for Windows, Mac OS as Linux. Skype Mac and Linux versions are always lagging behind the Windows version!

2008-06-13

Skype User’s Holiday

The beginning of the year begun very promising concerning the concurrent Skype users online. In a speed record of 42 days we passed from 11 million to 12 million people online at peak time.

As my regular readers know, there are some fluctuations, resulting in less people online at:
  • “GMT”-night
  • Weekends
  • National holidays of bigger Skype countries (USA, Brasil, UK, …)
  • Christmas and New Year Period
  • Northern Hemisphere Summer Period
The graph below represents my samples of concurrent people online since the early beginning of Skype, and it seems we are entering in summer recession.
  • The points marked 1, 2, 3 and 5 are the Northern Hemisphere summer periods of 2005 till 2008.
The next “million milestone” will most probably not be reached before September. This is deceptive. Indeed, the promising “start of the year” mentioned above seems to have been a “one shot”.

All the new “features” added by Skype in the last months, including the number recognition launched some weeks ago were not spectacular enough to attract bunches of new users. This doesn't mean those features were not nice. I would even say the Skype client has improved in the last months: less bugs, more stability, better quality.

Skype continues to grow, this i am quite sure. But not at the same speed as their best year 2006, where almost 4 million “peak concurrent users” online were added! Let’s us meet in September again to witness the 13 million milestone.

2008-06-04

Complaining again

I already complained about it in the past, in "Respect my choice": i got an e-mail from Skype for one of my unused user accounts. My language settings for this account are those of the embedded image on the left: English!

The mail I got is …
French.

Why? Does Skype suppose there is only one language in Belgium? In fact we have three official languages, in proportional order: Dutch, French, German. And we have quite a lot of immigrants speaking Arabic, Turkish, English and other languages. Other countries also have several languages, like Switzerland, or even Estonia (some people speak Russian there) and United Stated (Spanish?).

The e-mail of Skype shows a complete lack of respect for their customers concerning language settings and choices! I personally don’t mind, but i assure you some fanatic or extremist people will leave Skype after such a mistake, and not only in Belgium!

Anyway, one good point: i tried to download the newest release of the Skype client, and this time the downloaded version was indeed the newest version.

300 million user ACCOUNTS

Have a look at that quite interesting paper on why Google should invest in new acquisitions and why it should disinvest in Skype: Will eBay Go Shopping?.
But, when will Skype stop to claim it has 276 million users? It are more than 300 million user ACCOUNTS right now, not USERS, according to Skype.

I have 20 user accounts (some spare for family members) but i am only one user!

See why user is NOT the same as user account in some of my previous posts, and here in (if i remember) the first one: How many users does Skype have today? (April 2006), and see the estimate of real (or active) Skype users here: Borderless Communicator.

2008-06-01

MeBeam 16 + Skype

The Australian Ashod Apakian did it again. He is playing around with video conversations over the internet, and is a real freak! His first creations, in 2005, had the name WigiWigi. Nice name. And it was high quality video, never seen before. His new creation is called MeBeam. I tested it with two computers on my desk and another one downstairs with my youngest son.
Well great:
  • Video conferencing up to 16 persons
  • It is launched through Skype!
  • You don’t need to download anything, a FlashPlayer enabled webpage is enough!
  • And your videoconferencing contacts only have to click on a link in the Skype chat window!
The rest, well, read it here: Multi party video for Skype

Amazing!

2008-05-31

Forum topics down :-)

Recently Ike Roelfsema, Head of Communities and Forum Operations at Skype, published a quite interesting blogpost concerning the Skype Forum with as title: “Skype, Skyper, Skypest”.

And Tamas Henning, the guy who developed the new forum also expressed his feelings in “Flip the switch”.

Let me now comment on this and let us look at the graph of new topics on the forum (see the blue curve).
The first thing you can see is that right after the launch of the new forum on April 17 (see the green line on the graph) the new topics went down to less then 30 per day. Tamas explains this like this: “Of course there has been a slight drop at the beginning but come on when you release something new this is to be expected.”. Very plausible of course, and indeed the number of new topics went up again very fast in the next days.

There has however been a downward trend, from about 80 new topics per day in March to about 50 in May. This is clearly NOT due to the new layout of the forum. The red trend line shows a downward tendency in front of the green line, and the downward tendency continues after the launch of the new forum!

Does it mean the Skype Forum is not attractive anymore? I don’t think so. Everybody knows that most people visit a forum because they have an issue to resolve! The forum is the best way to get help anyway!

Why is there a monthly decline of new topics per day? My guesses are:
Ike says also “The forum users in their 50’s have most difficulties with the new way it is designed”. Well i am 51, and after experimenting with it, i have to admit i like the new design: it is innovating, it is nice to look at, and there are more features. I hope she didn’t think about me when stating that 50+ bullshit

2008-05-24

1000 UNRESOLVED issues

It is a pity how some bloggers misinterpret words and numbers. One guy blogged with the following title: 740 unsolved problem on Skype since 2006.
Well, he is twice wrong, it is not “PROBLEM” but “ISSUES” and it is not 740 but almost 1000!

“Issues” on the Skype Developer Zone include BUGS, improvement requests, new feature requests, and so on! It concerns also ALL the clients for which there is a Skype version, including the Pocket PC and the Smartphones!

Therefore, let’s look ONLY to the bugs. There are 43 bugs with status “open, in progress, or reopened” for the Windows client. Digging deeper into them you can see that some are quite trivial, some are more serious.

Worse are the “234 new” Windows BUGS. Reading some of the titles, i saw quite a lot of duplicates, even some with the mention “fixed”, or some very trivial ones like a “typing mistake”.
I guess the “NEW" category are the bug reports that were not thoroughly analysed yet. Therefore quite a lot of them are probably not bugs. Be aware that bug reports can be filed by quite a lot of people, and most aren't Skype Staff!

Please do your homework again a1gjv. And please Skype, clean up the "NEW" list and solve the bugs!

2008-05-12

Don’t answer, IGNORE ALIENS!

It is a plague, but it isn’t worse then viruses!

I got 3 times the same mail message from supposedly PayPal asking me to check my account (i have an account but inactive since years). Just to see what would happen i clicked on the link (don’t do it!) and FireFox warned me i shouldn’t continue! Right answer!
Then I got another mail from Mister Unknown To Me asking me to join his Skype Business Control Panel. What the heck? Will he offer me free credit?I checked the website, nothing wrong at first sight (but i didn’t dig deeper, too scared) and checked also for the Skype Username, hmm … strange. Doesn’t seem trustful!

Then my new girlfriend tried to chat with me, but i didn’t feel in the mood to answer her. Don’t contact her either, or i guarantee that nasty things could happen to you! But i swear i will have nothing to do with it!
Like i said, not worse than computer viruses, because if you don’t do anything, nothing weird will happen. Just don’t answer, don’t react. See also the interesting post of my friend Nafcom here: Account spam in the Skype and ICQ network

When could you however react? Well, look at my previous blogpost: i got a call and contact request from somebody i didn’t know, BUT … there was a very clear personal message: he said he wanted to talk about my blog, therefore i accepted to chat with him!

2008-05-07

Hiding and showing avatars?

Today i received at the same time a call and a chat message of an unknown person. Lucky for me, this time it was a “serious” request, and not a “sex chat” request from a girl from Ghana or any other part of the world. Well, Skype has to fine tune its new release if they want to be consequent with themselves .

In the new release of the Skype 3.8 client there is this new “feature”, with this explanation:
In addition, we’ve hidden the avatar by default in incoming authorization requests. Some people have been using images that others don’t find all that pleasing.
But what about “unwanted calls”?
As you can see, the avatar shown in the chat request is hidden by default, but the avatar from the call is shown! Therefore, even for “new callers” they should hide the avatar by default if they want to be consequent!

2008-05-02

Shifts in website visits

In January i expressed my surprise on the 4 smaller countries in the top 5 of Skype.com visitors.

Then some weeks ago i caught again data from the Alexa website. And i did it again on May 1.

The table below shows the top 5 visiting countries of the Skype.com websites on those 3 different dates.
Here the objective remarks:
  1. In January 16.5% of the visits came from 4 smaller emerging countries (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Algeria and Slovakia), and 9% from "Big Brother" U.S.A.;
  2. On April 15, one of the smaller countries left the top 5 and was replaced by … China!
  3. On May 1st, all the smaller countries left the top 5, and were replaced by 3 big rich industrialised countries (Germany, Italy, United kingdom);
  4. The U.S.A. has reinforced its first position: it has more then doubled its share of the website visits, with 20% of all the visits;
  5. China also increased its share and rose from the third position to the second position;
  6. About 25% of the visits came from the top 5 countries in January and April 15, and rose quite spectacularly to 43% after April 21!.
Now the “why’s” and of course, here i am speculating, because i don’t have access to the commercial data of Skype related to purchases or downloads or new user accounts per country:
  1. In January the smaller emerging countries were in the top 5 because they invest heavily in fast internet connections, which means that people now have the possibility to use Skype, therefore … more website visits!
  2. The addition of China in the top 5 is a confirmation that the Chinese internet penetration is accelerating;
  3. Skype launched its new calling subscription plan on April 21. A lot of people from rich countries went to the website to check the prices;
  4. The interest of the USA in the new subscription plan is also very clear!
  5. And China continues to grow!
  6. Spending money on Skype is a rich countries business!
Does this mean that the new subscription plan is a success? I don’t know. I also took a look at the website, but didn’t subscribe. Huge amounts of new customers could also mean a lot of new downloads, and i don't notice anything there, see my previous post. I think it will be a shift in consumption pattern for some people, and this does not necessarily mean an increase in revenue for Skype.

2008-05-01

Download slowdown & bug

Vengeance and hatred is not a good motivator to blog. Jamie Watson helped a lot of Skype forum visitors, especially on video problems, until he was banned because he didn’t respect some basic forum behaviour rules. Since that time he is – through his blog - throwing around a lot of bullshit, lies, exaggerations, and statements taken out of their context, only to satisfy his own ego! This is a pity, he is loosing every bit of credibility!

My time to complain however! I tried to download the new Skype client version “3.8.0.115” on my Windows XP laptop, and i got the older 3.6 version. I even tried to download it through 3 different browsers. Then i tried it on my “Vista Desktop” and hurrah! I could download the latest version without problems. Strange that Skype doesn’t solve that bug, it is already many months old! Confusing for inexperienced computer users and bad for the image of Skype! Not everyone is affected however. But the good news, and whatever Jamie Watson will tell you: the new version solved some problems for me, and the call quality is excellent as almost always!

More about the downloads …

As suddenly as the speed of downloads went up around the end of February, as suddenly it went down around April 15. I speculated that the rise of downloads was due to the Oprah Winfrey effect in the USA, but why did it stop so suddenly (see the red curve on the graph below)?It even seems that the download speed is lower then at the beginning of this year.
There is however no clear correlation between the number of downloads and the users online:
  • From January 1 till April 7 "peak users online" grew with 2 million!
  • The increase of download speed started at February 25 and stopped at April 17
  • "Peak users online" went slightly down from 12.7 million to 12.4 million at peak time in the last 4 weeks!
Why are "concurrent users online" not growing anymore? I can only speculate here …
I guess Christmas presents end of 2007 generated some indirect Skype boosting effects:
  • new computers, webcams, Skype compatible phones, upgrades to Windows Vista, mobiles with internet access, etc. ... but the effect of this on Skype has stopped!
  • and, the Oprah Winfrey effect also stopped.
Again: this is only speculation!

2008-04-26

Money and Active Users

The following graph shows the contribution of Skype to the eBay revenue for the last 5 quarters, expressed as well in US$ as in € (euro). Contribution is basically “revenue less costs”, see one of my previous posts.This has clearly a flattening tendency.
The same number expressed per User Account is even worse:It has a downward tendency, although, according to Skype the user base has increased with 33 million! Pity that they only report the number of registered user accounts, and not the active users.
User accounts includes also the multiple accounts of one person, the accounts that are completely abandoned for whatever reason, including the accounts of deceased persons.
Estimates from Hudson Barton and myself of active users are below 35 million!
By the way, what happened with the Skype Account(s) of Russel Shaw?

2008-04-19

Deceiving quarterly results

Skype published its quarterly results, and i am not convinced we can call this good results!

Indeed, the quarterly revenue raised from 115 million US$ to 126 million US$, therefore an increase of about 10%, but …
  1. Calculated in Euro (€) this is a quarterly increase of only 2%!
  2. And … registered users have gone up by 12%!
Worse is the revenue per user account. In US$ it still seems to have an upward tendency, but in Euro it has definitely a downward tendency!Why is a conversion of the revenue in Euro worth to do?
  1. Only 18% of the revenue is generated in the USA (therefore US$ revenue!);
  2. Skype is still a European company registered in Luxemburg;
  3. Most Skype staff are located in Europe, therefore the costs are also accountable in Euro (€).
Hmmm …

2008-04-02

Google-Skype: planned engagement?

Today several blogs launched the rumour of a possible affair between Google and Skype. See here, here and here.

Well, i think the rumour could be true! Why? Not because there isn’t a hidden eBay emoticon in the Skype client but …

only because THE TIMING SEEMS TO BE NO COINCIDENCE: beginning of April! See my previous post “Where is the new CEO?” or directly this: eBay agreed that if, on or prior to March 31, 2008, eBay sells or transfers securities representing greater than 50% of the outstanding voting power of, or economic interest in, Skype (it) would pay up to an additional €138,411,300 … to the Earn Out Sellers.

But why did Skype-eBay appoint a new CEO some weeks ago?

2008-03-30

A country called Skype

According to a recent post of VoIP-News, a new telephone country code for VoIP users will be created. The company called VoxBone, based in Brussels, Belgium, succeeded in obtaining that number. It means that you could call any VoIP number from a classic telephone line by dialing 833 plus the VoIP number of your contact. Read the whole story here: Creating A Country Called VoIP.
Surprisingly, they say “The goal is that if you call someone on Skype, you dial 883 plus their number”. But, Skype accounts are not numbers, it are alphanumeric user names. This would mean the user name would have to be translated to a number.

Interesting, because – if true - anyone could call my Skype account from any cellular or PSTN phone and reach me wherever i am online and running Skype.

This could mean a new boost in Skype users, and consequently perhaps a new boost in the “revenue generating” voicemail feature of Skype. Indeed, although the Skype client is free, and Skype to Skype calls alike, for the voicemail you have to pay a subscription fee.

Or will Skype sell the VoIP numbers corresponding to the Skype user names? This could also generate revenue, but i think it would be a strategic mistake to ask customers to pay for their number. Revenue will be generated anyway, because the article says: "The carriers will have to pay Voxbone to complete the calls, and Voxbone will share those revenues with the VoIP companies."

[EDITED] Vincent made the following comment: “That is almost the same as SkypeIN, which exists since many years.”
Yes, and no …
A SkypeIn number is "country dependent", and exists only for 21 countries! A “VoIP country” would be universal, no agreement needed between Skype and separate countries! Definitely an advantage, depending on the cost for calling the new country!

It seems that Skype already is preparing a flag for that new VoIP country! Two recently added hidden emoticons are and . The first one is the European Union flag: type (flag:eu) in your chat window, and the second one, well i guess you guess it … type (flag:ss) in the chat window!

2008-03-23

World Online or asleep

You can find almost everything on internet. The information is probably not always reliable, but by comparing different sources, you can eliminate the scrap.

I made a search of world population by time zone, but no site did provide me with the complete picture. But, you can find many sites with population by country, and you can find sites with the population by regional and/or time zone in a specific country (Russia, Canada, Brasil, USA, and some others). Wikipedia is often a very good information source. I even found the information concerning some smaller islands.

Then i plotted the following graph: those countries and regions that are simultaneously living between “9:00 AM and 23:00 PM” or in other words the sum of people who are “awake”. See the green curve below (left scale).For instance: at 0 GMT, you have about 4 billion people awake at the same time (and a lot of Chinese people and other Asians), and at 15:30 GMT you have 6 billion people awake, in fact almost everybody, less the relatively scarcely populated Pacific Zone.

The blue curve (right scale) is the daily fluctuation of concurrent Skype users online in a typical day some months ago. The curves have similar shapes. But, the Asian peak is much higher in the world population chart (beware, scales are different!).

Why the difference? In Asia lesser people have access to Internet. This explains probably why the Skype “Asian peak” is proportionally much lower then the “People Awake” curve.

What if i had the internet users by time zone? Would that bring the curves closer to each other?

Well, i dug deeper, and found also data about the internet users by country, but “less” exploitable. I had to make for instance the “probably” false guess that the internet penetration in Russia is the same all over the whole country.

Here the graph …Almost the same shape as the previous one.

What if i had only the broadband users by country and region? Would that graph come closer the Skype graph? Pity, i didn’t find reliable complete data by country yet!

2008-03-18

In memoriam: Russell Shaw

He was one of the best known bloggers in the Skype Blogosphere, and certainly a Skype believer.

I discovered through the Skype blogs that he died: Farewell Russell Shaw.

A pity … and we were reading each others blogs. He once gave me a very nice compliment, saying that my “numerology blog” was “a real useful obsession”.

My condolences to his family.

2008-03-15

Group Chats

Ike [Skype Staff] and Tomi [Skype Beta Tester] pointed me to an interesting poll in the Skype forums (click here) about the usage of Group Chats.
In view of the number of votes, the graph is right now not statistically relevant. Moreover, the respondents are mainly very heavy Skype users (Staff, Super Users, Moderators), so it is quite biased. My guess is that most Skype users don’t use Group Chats at all!

But, Group Chats are useful, the same as conference calls, and perhaps even more. Just suppose you are working with some family members or colleagues on an event or a project …
  • You can ask a question or make a comment concerning your project even if some or offline;
  • Those who were offline can read the previous messages when they come back online, and add relevant information to the chat;
  • Chat history and messages are saved, so you can dig in the story and evolution of the project or event preparation (to find back why “this”, or when “that”);
  • Unlike a conference call, you don’t have to be all together available at the same moment.
The drawbacks are:
  • Not everyone uses Skype (not all of my family members for instance);
  • Quite a lot of the bigger companies block Skype, therefore it isn't used in a multi-company environment.
But, it is indeed a very useful feature!

2008-03-11

Skype contributed to eBay!

According to eBay …
"Direct contribution consists of net revenues from external customers less direct costs. Direct costs include specific costs of net revenues, sales and marketing expenses, and general and administrative expenses over which segment managers have direct discretionary control …”.

The following graph shows the evolution of the contribution as well in US dollar as in euro (€) quarter per quarter:Skype had a 15% contribution compared to revenue in the last quarter, and 12% for the whole year. Not bad, not spectacular however. But Skype indeed contributed to the eBay revenue in 2007, and this for the first time!

Per registered user account this represents ONLY 0.06 US$ per user for the last quarter (as Skype says in its marketing communication), or per registered user account (as it mentions correctly in the explanation of the data). This is 0.18 US$ for the whole year (2007)!
If we correct this, and only take the estimated “active or real” user (see one of my previous posts here) this number is however quite different: 1.68 US$ or 1.18 € contribution per active user in 2007!

Thanks to Sascha Vitzthum, who made me “discover” this contribution number on the eBay websites.

2008-03-07

The Oprah effect

A lot of fuss about Oprah Winfrey using Skype for a Webcast, just “google” it. But it probably explains why the downloads of the Skype client are showing a significant increase:
  • Around 500 downloads per minute with occasional peaks of 750 in the last months
  • Now (since the end of February) around 1000 downloads per minute, with occasional peaks of more than 1500.
Look at the slope of the picture below:

Will the Oprah fans remain Skype customers? Hopefully for Skype, but to be honest this will be mainly an American phenomenon: i didn’t know who she was before this campaign! And although i believe the Skype blog that there were registrants all over the world, i guess the proportion of non-US Americans is quite limited!
I am curious to see if this affects the growth of users online, but it is early to say something about it. What i know is that the increase of this last metric is very good since the beginning of the year!

2008-02-25

And the new President is ...

Today, finally: EBay names Silverman chief executive of Skype.

And he presents himself on the Skype Blog: A few words from Skype's incoming CEO. Here some bits of his phrases:
  • On March 24, I’ll step aboard
  • one of the most rapidly-adopted technologies in human history
  • With my wife and kids about to begin their adventure in Estonia
  • I don’t yet have the right to expect your enthusiastic two thumbs up. But as we go further on this journey together, I plan to earn it.
And my comments on his blogpost:
  • March 24? This means this is a well planned move
  • Let Skype be modest: it isn’t a new technology (P2P existed, and phoning through the computer was already possible before with MSN for instance), therefore i restate: Skype is one of the most rapidly adopted software in recent history, and it will probably NOT enter human history like the boomerang or the steam machine!
  • Aha, he moves with his family to Estonia … therefore headquarter stays in Europe!
  • I like the last phrase: it seems he is modest, but he is ambitious, and has plans (or will still make them) for the long term.
Two more feelings i have:
  • Probably Skype will not be sold in the near future (i am quite surprised, i thought it would).
  • It is good to see a CEO make comments on the company blog, and apparently he plans to continue to do this: therefore, thumbs up!
Skype isn't my ship, i am not the captain, not even the crew, i am only a fairly happy passenger, but anyway ... welcome on board Josh!

2008-02-23

Real Users

100 Billion Skype to Skype minutes, 276 million users: Marketing and Public Relation people like to throw with huge numbers, and Journalists love to pick them up.

Skype updated recently the metrics for the first number, and of course the result was raising the number (or was it cheating?). As Skype is Peer to Peer, they only can make guesses about the minutes served!

And, concerning the second number, they always omit to say it means "registered user accounts" (including unused and multiple accounts).

But, what about the real(-istic) numbers? Let us play around with the only number provided by the Skype Client, everybody can do the same, and perhaps publish in the comments here his own number.I have 187 Skype usernames in my contact list. Some of my friends have multiple user accounts, others are virtual friends (like “echo123”), others are not active Skypers anymore. Discounting these, i have 132 active contacts remaining. From these, 36 were online on Saturday, February 23 at 12:00 PM GMT+1. This is 27% of my contacts. At the same time there were 8.6 million people online according to my Skype client. Therefore [and here I make a non-scientifical guess], this number represents also 27% of all active Skype users. Extrapolating, there are about 31.5 million active Skype Users. Of course, my sample is quite small, therefore not statistically relevant. But, anyway, quite close to the “other guess” of Hudson Barton, who calculates 30,339,264 million users.

2008-02-21

Thanks

[This post was edited]
Two known blogs on Skype picked up my previous post or the information in my blog and made some own changes or interpretations.

See Russel Shaw here: Skype call trend lines are changing: here’s what this means

And Skype Journal here: 12 Million Online - New Peak on 18 February 2008
Correction on one of these posts we did reach 12 million on Monday 18 February, not on Sunday 18 February.

And, thanks for the compliments Russel :-)

2008-02-19

12 million in record time!

Yesterday Skype reached around 19h GMT 12 million concurrent users online, this for the first time ever. It went from 11 to 12 million in 42 days.This is an absolute speed record. The previous record million “speed” was 63 days in March 2006.

It is worth to notice that in the past the peaks were somewhere between 16h and 17h GMT. Now it occurs about two hours later. This shows a recent growth in the Americas. Or, in other words, they are catching up with the usage rate of the Europeans.

And when will Asia catch up? When it does, we should see lesser fluctuations of the number of concurrent users online between day and night, or at least a change in the patterns of the curve. If you want to see these daily fluctuations, make a jump at the very nice graphs of http://nyanyan.to.

2008-02-16

Where is the new CEO?

It has been almost 5 months since Niklas Zennström stepped down as Skype CEO and was replaced “ad interim” by Michael van Swaaij.In the meantime, there were some rumours, and some facts:
So, when will know where the ship is going? Remember only this …
eBay agreed that if, on or prior to March 31, 2008, eBay sells or transfers securities representing greater than 50% of the outstanding voting power of, or economic interest in, Skype (it) would pay up to an additional €138,411,300 … to the Earn Out Sellers.

Therefore, no official news before April 1st i guess. And i hope this will not be an April 1st joke!