Therefore, i made a speculation (yes, i am guilty, (grin) ) and lucky hazard made that a Skype Director confirmed my speculation. I never said that Skype downloads “reached a plateau”, as Hudson misquotes me. The graph below shows that downloads are indeed rising steadily!
I agree that downloads on its own isn’t the right measure to evaluate the growth of Skype. It is however one of the tools or numbers i have to make some analysis together with the main one: concurrent users online (here we agree!). Hudson however pretends that “ "downloads" shows exponential growth”. Well, there i disagree completely. The first 6 months of 2007 showed a linear growth (a STRAIGHT red LINE = LINEAR growth, NOT exponential). The second half of 2007 was somehow erratic. Mainly linear, besides some surges due to promotions. The last two months show again a linear tendency (green “linear” line) with even a lower slope than before.There is another reason why downloads “on its own” isn’t a measure of the Skype growth: it also depends on the rate of new releases: the last 6 months Skype released only 11 new Windows clients compared to 23 in the previous 6 months. And some people upgrade systematically (like i do!).
No doubt, Skype is still growing, but 2007 was a deceiving year! More about that in later blogposts.
2 comments:
Hi Jean! You didn't report that 11 million concurrent users were online as of 7/1... ;)
/Andreas
Hello Andreas,
You are right. I was so busy (work) that i noticed it 2 days after. As other bloggers had already blogged it, i refrained to blog on it myself.
But i mentioned it in some (comments) in my previous blogposts.
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