Slow growth :-(

Where is the growth of Skype? eBay must be biting its nails! The graph below shows only new record “peak times” of users online since the beginning of September, and it clearly shows a strong slowdown of growth – but still growth – of concurrent users online.
Peak time happens between 14h and 15h GMT, and only on Mondays, Tuesdays and Wednesdays. Thursday to Sunday, the numbers of users online go steadily down: weekend!
Looking at the numbers of the table below, the weekly increase of users online is slowing down dramatically. From a peak weekly growth of about 172.000 users online in week 38 (3th week of September) to only 47.500 this week (week 41)!
Users online is not the only indicator of revenue growth of Skype of course! In fact, it isn’t a good indicator at all, because most users online use Skype for the free calls and chat. Skype certified products, SkypeOut, SkypeIn, etc. are the indicators. I hope those numbers will be provided when eBay publishes quarterly results!

And "again again" on a Wednesday: a new Skype client version!


Anonymous said...

Peak users online illustrates only one slice of the growth, reflecting merely the point in the day at which Western European users have not yet left work and East Coast Americans have already arrived at work. It does not show west coast Americans, asians, eastern europeans, or most Africans.

To get a more reallistic picture of Skype growth, you must look at historical datapoints across the entire globe (at respective points of the day). For example if you wanted to get a picture of Skype growth in America with minimal influence from other continents you would look at 18-20 GMT. For Europe and Africa you would look at 10-12 GMT, and for Asia it would be 2-4 GMT.

My reading of the numbers tells me that Skype growth is accelerating, not slowing down.

Anonymous said...

Here's more evidence of what I'm saying: Compare the stats for April 4, 2006 and October 11, 2006. Using 11GMT, 19GMT, and 2GMT as proxies for Europe, America, and Asia respectively, we can calculate the annualized growth rates for the daytime Skype use... and the results are 162% growth rate for Asia, 138% for America, and 135% for Europe. Europe is lagging. America is starting to catch up. Asia is flying ahead.

Anonymous said...

whoops. those annualized growth rates were miscalculated. It should read: 69% for Asia, 46% for America, and 44% for Europe.

Anonymous said...

Also, because of seasonal issues, it's a bit unfair to compare the third week of September to the current week. The former is high because it is bouncing back from the famous summer slowdown. Try comparing to last April, or better yet to the the same week from a year ago. I don't believe there is a slowdown at all. It seems to me that it's accelerating, especially if you look at times other than the peak.

Jean Mercier said...

Hudson, (anonymous = probably Hudson ;-) , another way to see if you are right is comparing the maximum of the daily curve with the minimum.

If you look at the graph of my previous post, there could be some change in growth pattern. However, i am not sure, because in my opinion the differences are not very significant;

The "69%" calculation is however interesting. It could indeed mean Asia is growing faster then Europe and the US. The difference between 44% and 46% is statistical fluctuation!