Summer or Final Recession?

I noticed that last night the concurrent users online went below 4 million. Quite normal "night dip" for a Saturday to Sunday night, but hasn't been that low since a long time. This is also an indication that we are entering a summer slowdown, see my explanation on this phenomenon in my post of September last year.

Skype growth is however clearly slowing down!
  • We will not reach 10 million concurrent users online before September (my guess), and then it will have been more than 200 days to acquire one additional million. The only time it lasted longer was for the acquisition of the first million concurrent users online: it took 418 days!
  • In 2006, Skype grew with 3.84 million concurrent users online (at peak time). Now in the first 6 months of 2007 we only have added 1.22 million users (see the table below)!
So what? Has Skype really reached some “saturation level”?


Anonymous said...

I love Skype but it looks like their growth is finally over. It was good while it lasted. The founders were smart and lucky to sell out to eBay at exactly the right time.

Jean Mercier said...

When they sold it i already had the impression that the exponential growth was changing towards linear growth.

So, you are right, they sold it at the right moment, and probably they already new that the growth would not continue that long.

So, yes, i agree, exactly the right time! Clever move, from them :-), not from EBay ;-(